Sunday, November 11, 2007

Hypersensitive market week ahead

A Sunday perspective suggests that markets will remain hypersensitive in the coming week. Asia needs to follow through on Friday's terrible market close in the U.S., as does Europe to a lesser extent. The dollar's decline continues. One startling example. As this is being typed the dollar is down 10% against the yen over the last month, which feels like a stealth move with so much of the focus on the Euro. 10% is a very big move. The markets are extremely unsettled.

Not much in the newspapers and other financial news over the weekend will do much to soothe nerves. It seemed impossible to find any column or commentary that said don't worry be happy. There was a lot of I told you so commentary to fill the column inches and air waves. Where do we go this week?

More volatility is the answer. Mid week brings economic data that could shake the market in either direction, although the bias at the moment will be to punish disappointments more than reward any status quo report, or an unlikely pleasant surprise. Tomorrow, who knows, it will be a trader's market. One scenario would be a huge sell-off through the morning as everyone late to the scare and beaten up by the lack of positives over the weekend will sell and that will be followed by a radical afternoon rally driven by traders making a good buck for the day on the backs of the morning players. Just a guess.

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