Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Finney of Evermay sees holiday cheer

We caught up with Kizziah Finney, equity strategist at Evermay Securities, last night at O'Lunneys on 2nd. Holding a pint of Guinness before his eyes and trying to look through the more than opaque liquid Finney commented that his forward vision was unclear. Then lifting the glass to his lips and quaffing half of it in one smooth drink he smiled, saying that the near term outlook is definitely good.

Finney expects consumer spending to hold up during the holidays and hiring to continue picking up, obviously with both sales and jobs figures staying weak but with the trends showing encouraging improvements in a positive direction. He sees corporate profit growth in energy, telecommunications, agriculture, and materials companies generally, and technology and financials still having some way up to go despite some market skepticism on those two. Finney's big worry is sovereign debt, in his word at O'Lunneys, "Dubai and Greece are no big shakes, or at least they shouldn't be. And Vietnam and one or two of those 'Stans aren't major players at all. Problem is these damn contagion spreading bare naked credit default swaps somehow still exist. Hell, pick and pay or whatever they were called, those worst of subprime mortgages were no more than 2% of the whole mortgage market, subprime as a whole maybe seven or eight percent, but those downward bet CDS securities are like endless shrimp month at Red Lobster. Get started and they can make you dangerously ill. If we are going in the shitter again it will be sovereign debt leading the way with those same CDS derivatives making billionaires out of a relative few while putting the financial world in chaos again. Don't take me seriously on this, I'd bet against it happening, but I don't feel alive if I'm not worried."

Finney reititerated his positive outlook for the holidays and said that "a wall of something is still being climbed and I hope it doesn't get too slippery". While having a tendency to be somewhat obtuse Finney's overall view can best be characterized as not negative enough to dare missing the next big move.


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