Thursday, November 03, 2011

THE 6:53am --- Recovery?

The 6:53am is the LIRR train that I took most often when I worked full time in Manhattan and had moved to the suburbs. With lots of errands to do in the city today I took that train. It was not due to any urgency, but just the fact that I woke up early and with no chance to go back to sleep had already read the NYT, had my coffee, juice, toast, and jam and was ready to get out.

The 6:53 out of my suburb, 26 minutes to Penn Station, was until my last days of regular work a complete scrum. People jammed at the entrance doors on our platform, had planned their spots in advance based on previous experience, and did the aggressive save seating act if they got there in front of any companion. New York. I figured it out and got used to it. I learned to never get a middle seat.

Today was a revelation. I had not tried this train in 3 or 4 years, and went to my usual experienced advantage point. The car was almost empty. It's an express train so at the next stop we added more and some would have been standing in the past. The LIRR has since added one additional stop to this express and while it for the most part filled the train there was still no one standing and no one seated next to me in my three seater( and I had taken a shower for sure).

The 6:53am from my town was, was, a train of financial service folks like myself, garment district workers at the higher and middle levels, and legal firms both major attorneys and their sub-partners or assistants.

So to get the point of this post, this was an amazing observance of what has happened to our economy and how broadspread the damage has become.

To me, the 6:53 was totally annoying and vibrant at the same time. Multi-cultural and linguistic, in hindsight it was the signpost of a vibrant economy. Now there is simply no comparison to four years ago. I'm not kidding you, no pushing, no shoving, extra seats, I was astonished today. Today is not a holiday, no special day, what I saw was what is going on.

My take, just a signficantly lower amount of economic activity, everyone stuck in place, no one hiring, using part timers, no optimistic outlook, and no clear way to invest for productive futures. The redepression of 2008 and 2009 is behind us, but there is now no new path. People that survived are stuck. People that did not are stuck. Entrepreneurship at the personal level is still alive and well, vigorously in some sectors like tech(potentially productive but no immediate payback) and restaurants(rarely productive ever if books and tv don't follow).

Today the old 6:53am with all of its annoyances seems like something we will never get back to. I hope that I am wrong. Today was alarming.

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