Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Equity markets stay too calm

Low volumes, low sense of reliability, and a general feeling of being out of the game are affecting not just individuals but institutions.  Just another reason for the revival of index funds, a way to stay in the market and not be overly exposed.

Problem is that big gains are made in individual stocks.  Big losses can be as well but usually they can be staunched by the SELL button. 

Now the work is focused on the fact that the real estate markets are finally starting to improve.   That is questionable.  In certain desirable markets that may be the case, maybe even our own.  But overall, the overhang from the real estate depression remains immense.  There are simply not enough jobs around for the inventory of cheap houses and associated low interest loans to deal with the inventory of homes short of just knocking them down, as they do in Cleveland and smaller towns.

The equity market hangs in because most corporations, even relatively small ones, have global practices.  The equity market hangs in because despite of occasional well publicized problems it is the most transparent in the world.  The equity market hangs in because people who have the liberty to live here like it,  not that it is all perfect.

We live in a time of uncertainty.  Why is my newspaper not in my driveway at 6:30?  What lightbulps do  need to replace? When can I find time to replace the broken windshield wiper on my old Mercedes?  This is uncertainty???  Look at the people in Syria.  Look at the women in Afganistan.  Look at the many opened minded people in Iran.  Look at the majority of people in North Korea that are starving. 

We live in a time of relative certainty, in some cases with the psychologic inability to realize it.

We are so lucky.  I love driving my few cars.  I am completely able to support my daughters, one in college$$$$ and one in a new but interesting job$$.  While getting older leads to some getting older issues,  I've got some improvement underway.  We have a major real estate deal in our sights, a burden relieved from the entire Liu family, and me as someone who may have needed to backstop any problem.

Enough of this.  Just a pep talk to myself,  and a warning to myself to not come up with too many "good" investment ideas.     


Post a Comment

<< Home