Obama's realization

One could think that President Obama had no idea that the campaign would be so close.  He had his strong base of support and Mitt Romney was certainly no man of the people, or that was his thought.   No man of the people hides most of his tax returns from public scrutiny and has accounts in Switzerland and the Caymans.  Romney and his VP running mate were vulnerable on those staples of insecurity, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.  Romney himself was robotic and extremely transparent in his ever changing views on important issues.  Romney promises 12 million new jobs in his first term with absolutely no clear plan that supports that statement.  How could the election be so close, Obama and his team must be thinking,

It is close.  While within the "margin of error" for sure, Romney is now one point up in the polls, 48% to 47%, two days after the last debate and the first time he has ever been in the lead.  Key states for the more important electoral college vote are highly competitive.  Why so tight a race when, as can happen, for a majority of Americans a vote for Romney may be against their own best interests, at least on the surface, that surface being the tax code and needed transfer payments.

Why so close.  Obama's perceived anti-business attitude and rhetoric has built a strong constituency of influential people, some very wealthy but some small business types, that would vote for anyone but Obama and they are out in full force.  Obama's failure to put his full support behind the Simpson Bowles initiative was an inconceivable blunder.  Obama is viewed by many as aloof and arrogant, which in the American tradition overshadows his intelligence and accomplishments in the eyes of many.  Obama and his team may not have considered the possibility that 2008 was an anomaly, and being an African American is not necessarily a positive.

Another facet of the Obama campaign that now can't be undone is their focus on attacking Romney and Republicans more than focusing on their accomplishments to date and their plans for the next four years.  That theme seems to have aged badly as we head to the finish line.  While Romney proposes no real agenda for achieving his promises other than Ryan's radical solutions that would be unlikely to get through Congress, as the sitting President, Obama is more vulnerable when his campaign energy is directed toward Romney and not toward the future.

Romney was seemingly relaxed in the debate on Monday while Obama was intense.  That said more about the state of the race than all of the words spoken.  It's all up in the air now.  The electoral college can be Obama's salvation but even that is now unclear.  We will watch.  Obama is still the odds-on favorite but the odds have tightened recently.