Gold rise today outstrips other commodities - Middle East uncertainty?
After a significant fall during most of the year, gold has been exhibiting a slow but steady rise of late. Today(Friday) the rise in gold significantly outstripped other commodities. Even my beleaguered Newmont Mining equity investment has been showing some signs of life, especially today. With equity markets rising steadily and providing investments that have yield, with most major hedge funds having liquidated much of their speculative gold positions earlier in the year, with gold hungry India's purchasing power crashing, and the ever accumulative Chinese in an economy that is experiencing slowing growth and has a new prime minister that seems to want to somewhat discourage conspicuous consumption by the ultra wealthy, WHY would gold be on a month long uptick.
Here's maybe a wild guess, maybe not so wild, from this perspective. The gold market is beginning to anticipate pinpoint strategic joint airstrikes by the U.S. U.K. and France on Syrian military strongholds and expected chemical launching areas. Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and various other Middle Eastern countries would either vigorously or quietly support such an action.
The personally weak but hideous Assad and his military controllers cannot remain unchecked forever. Some action against them will be noticed by his main allies, Iran and Hezbollah. They need to know that U.S. patience is not unlimited and Assad's little obstructionist games with the U.N. will not work long term.
Obama's reticence to do anything, to enforce his so-called "red line", has become a joke. It is well known that he has a legitimate fear that any action will strengthen the extreme and brutal Islamist factions that have been attracted to Syria after the original indigenous demonstrations were brutally suppressed. What is the big risk here? Assad is already doing a great job of attracting the worst Islamists. Assad's killing of 100,000 of his country's citizens and driving as many as 2 million into exile have opened the door for Al Qaeda. The chemical weapons attacks will reinforce the tenacity of the extremists and will attract more from all over the Middle East. It can't get much worse.
Syria is sadly in tatters. Assad is protecting the government areas of Damascus as well as its wealthy enclaves. The commercial center of Syria, the city of Aleppo, has been bombed to an almost dysfunctional state. Assad's unwillingness to negotiate or compromise at all for almost three years has led a peaceful beginning of protests to this dire situation. Assad's blatantly lying spokesmen are insulting to the intelligence of all people. How can someone with Assad's record of atrocities all of a sudden be trusted, with more intelligence needed by other nations before any actions of consequence other than small arms, medical supplies, and refugee help with some risk.
Syria is an incredibly important strategic country in the Middle East. Any action against Assad by allied forces will need to be done carefully and with no "boots on the ground". Other Middle Eastern nations of great wealth and with vast military capability may need to step up to maintain order, namely the still troubled but Shiite ruled Iraq and the lame spoiled Saudi Arabia with its wealth and despite its Sunni roots.
Two other major powers could also play a powerful role in settling this conflict down, forcing some negotiation, however fragile the result may be. Russia, as a major supporter of Syria, has already at the foreign ministry level, condemned the use of chemical weapons by Assad while tentatively awaiting definitive results. Resource needy China, which can't burn coal to the point of environmental disaster forever, could step in and play a role that is not just acquisitive but also leverage its buying power into something positive. It's not all on the U.S., and the American public is not close to accepting any such outcome.
Perhaps gold markets see something going on in the near term that others don't want to acknowledge. It's entirely possible.
Here's maybe a wild guess, maybe not so wild, from this perspective. The gold market is beginning to anticipate pinpoint strategic joint airstrikes by the U.S. U.K. and France on Syrian military strongholds and expected chemical launching areas. Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and various other Middle Eastern countries would either vigorously or quietly support such an action.
The personally weak but hideous Assad and his military controllers cannot remain unchecked forever. Some action against them will be noticed by his main allies, Iran and Hezbollah. They need to know that U.S. patience is not unlimited and Assad's little obstructionist games with the U.N. will not work long term.
Obama's reticence to do anything, to enforce his so-called "red line", has become a joke. It is well known that he has a legitimate fear that any action will strengthen the extreme and brutal Islamist factions that have been attracted to Syria after the original indigenous demonstrations were brutally suppressed. What is the big risk here? Assad is already doing a great job of attracting the worst Islamists. Assad's killing of 100,000 of his country's citizens and driving as many as 2 million into exile have opened the door for Al Qaeda. The chemical weapons attacks will reinforce the tenacity of the extremists and will attract more from all over the Middle East. It can't get much worse.
Syria is sadly in tatters. Assad is protecting the government areas of Damascus as well as its wealthy enclaves. The commercial center of Syria, the city of Aleppo, has been bombed to an almost dysfunctional state. Assad's unwillingness to negotiate or compromise at all for almost three years has led a peaceful beginning of protests to this dire situation. Assad's blatantly lying spokesmen are insulting to the intelligence of all people. How can someone with Assad's record of atrocities all of a sudden be trusted, with more intelligence needed by other nations before any actions of consequence other than small arms, medical supplies, and refugee help with some risk.
Syria is an incredibly important strategic country in the Middle East. Any action against Assad by allied forces will need to be done carefully and with no "boots on the ground". Other Middle Eastern nations of great wealth and with vast military capability may need to step up to maintain order, namely the still troubled but Shiite ruled Iraq and the lame spoiled Saudi Arabia with its wealth and despite its Sunni roots.
Two other major powers could also play a powerful role in settling this conflict down, forcing some negotiation, however fragile the result may be. Russia, as a major supporter of Syria, has already at the foreign ministry level, condemned the use of chemical weapons by Assad while tentatively awaiting definitive results. Resource needy China, which can't burn coal to the point of environmental disaster forever, could step in and play a role that is not just acquisitive but also leverage its buying power into something positive. It's not all on the U.S., and the American public is not close to accepting any such outcome.
Perhaps gold markets see something going on in the near term that others don't want to acknowledge. It's entirely possible.
posted by John Borden at 4:57 PM
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