Monday, April 21, 2014

Seems like it's time to get back to posting

What better thing to write about when the muse, however muddled, has gone quiet?  You've got it, and the answer is thoughts on the equity market.  Now that's an area where the field is always wide open.

This is a market today which scares everyone but which no one wants to leave.  Where to go?  After some of the retrenchment in recent weeks, modest with any perspective, is this the time to pick up a few bargains, join an upswing, or is this the time to trim positions before another dip.  There are no answers here, other than stay the course, stay diversified, and buy and sell based on company specifics, sector opinions, or your choice of indexes.

There is one nagging thought here, one that is of concern.  That starts with what one could think is the "fact" that this market has no strong conviction.  Usually that can be positive.  Right now, with the Ukraine debacle being managed by the unpredictable Putin(I would say predictable), there could be ominous events on the horizon.  Then, if someone does something of real concern, the markets could be, would be, shaken.

One could envision Putin saying to himself, "they've put these economic sanctions on us and limitations on some of our economic interactions even as our economy is already under pressure.  Then, I'll show them, and do something that really shakes up their markets.  My army is being fueled by nationalism, is well trained and ready to go to it, while the U.S has military fatigue.  Ukraine is of no strategic interest to the U.S. and they are not part of any NATO treaty.  Europe has no heart in becoming involved in any military action, and one could not expect the U.S. to react in an unexpectedly rash way to an invasion of Ukraine by my forces.  Maybe they would just send long face to see us." 

How will this play out?  For now we can only focus on this week's first quarter earnings reports.


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