Thursday, October 23, 2014

U.S. equity market may revive today, up at first and then sideways is a guess

Yesterday's event in Canada and continued oil price declines in the afternoon were exogenous events that obviously impacted the equity market yesterday.  They were digested negatively, but it's an open playing field today.  The European PMI report grew this month, modestly but ruling out a slide into recession near term.  Dire unemployment in Spain dropped somewhat, and U.S. corporate earnings continued positively apace, even as those companies that manage to disappoint investors get seriously pummeled, see IBM and Coca Cola.  That is the case in Europe as well, see Unilever and Michelin.

Anything related to oil anywhere is subject to downward pressure, even as consumers continue to have the latent benefit of lower energy and gasoline costs.  Banks and financial service companies have been under pressure in general as exposure to European bonds presents both credit and interest rate risk near term.  Emerging markets are being led lower by China, as equity markets decline there amidst the usual array of excuses by government controlled spokesmen.  Is it right to say that the prime reason for equity market weakness is a glut of IPO's?  Certainly not in any scenario that is not extremely short term.  China has other real issues. 

We await today's market with the thought that U.S. corporate earnings will, with some exceptions, continue to buoy equity prices, at least maintaining the current level and working up from there.  Prognostications like this are surely unreliable, but that's a rational market view at this very moment.


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