Monday, August 04, 2008

Time for a short squeeze

The stock market recently has been like a bad tire. Slow leak, day by day, can't find the solution, fill it up, and a few days later it's getting really low. Fill it up, and wonder if it's going to leave you stranded one day, stuck in a parking lot late or worse yet on the side of the LIE. It's time for an old fashioned short squeeze. That's a 500 point plus burst out on the upside and it won't be because things are all of a sudden hunky-dory. It will come about because it has just become too easy to be negative, and the outlook too grim.

Well, one could say, what would be the catalyst. The housing and financial issues are not going away anytime soon, inflation is rising, job losses are rising, and the nation has no strong leadership at a time when both presidential candidates are trying to exploit discontent. Bankruptcies, personal and corporate, are rising. That's all true but the market has arguably priced this news in, and more, much more. There are some areas, like those financial companies big and small that have strong balance sheets, that are radically oversold. There is still debate left in this market, or there should be, but it's hard to find---a perfect set-up for a short squeeze.

Oil goes up, the market goes down. Oil goes down, the market goes down. Small cap individual stocks slide down by 15% on no news and volume that's just modestly above average(that's profit taking panic). Large caps report excellent results but prudently refuse to lay out a scenario that doesn't spoon feed the analyst's needs and the stock gets clobbered(that's job security selling throughout the investment community).

It's time. And I would certainly like to be right.

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