Consumer Christmas

Consumers have been seriously shaken. They are saving, they are strapped at some levels, and they have been holding back, by necessity. That said, what's coming in the next few months may be something big.

The comps from last year should be easy. It's not yet so special but last year at this time the financial terror was beginning to take hold. It accelerated through December. It was rough. What's possible in the consumer psychology now is that those who have jobs, 90% by some optimistic estimates, have been postponing purchases to the holiday season. Gone may be the days for many when an IPhone purchase, the Urban Outfitters gift card, the new bicycle, the pendant wrist bracelet, the idea of a change of cars, or many other purchases were viewed as an anytime gratuitous event, part of life's lucky credit cycle, as opposed to saving for a traditional time, a time for children, close friends, and other loved ones.

Savings now may mean a compensatory holiday season.