Thursday, October 22, 2009

The manifest destiny of U.S. Bancorp

U.S. Bancorp is a large mid-west, plains, and northwest bank that is the sixth largest traditional banking franchise in the country. It is well run, repaid its forced on TARP money, and has a balance sheet and business that makes sense post crisis. What's next?

For now the company is focused on add-ons, some FDIC give-aways of deposits and branches, some whole troubled institutions. They say that's enough. That's not likely. With any further reverberation in the credit markets this firm is ready to expand, add to its geography, and extend its U.S. Bancorp image.

One could say that they are by management and cultural experience, even financial analysis, not ready for the Northeast. Good guess perhaps. That leaves Regions, Suntrust, and BB&T as the southeastern banks that would make complete sense. Each bank is on the precipice of trouble with the investor world waiting to see how much of the small commercial and mid-sized commercial real estate exposure that each company has becomes troubled and stresses their capital position. It's unclear. Suntrust has huge Florida exposure which is not a good thing, Regions is showing stress, and BB&T is having a hard time with the Colonial pick-up while its Chairman, former CEO, spends his time going around being the leading espouser of the Ayn Rand philosophy, giving away the company's money to support college programs for further study. They no doubt are impressed that he was handed the CEO job at BB&T on a silver family platter when he was 41.

That's another story, best left alone. U.S. Bancorp will expand.

As flawed as the three choices are, the bet here is that BB&T's low key arrogance brings it down and U.S. Bancorp gets a valuable footprint in the mid and south east. BB&T is the best franchise of the three and their self-regard may lead to a stumble.

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