Thursday, October 15, 2009

Muni bond market breaking

With the prior post in mind, the first crack in the wall of fixed income is tax exempt municipal bond obligations. Money market funds in this area yield next to nothing and intermediate term securities are backing up. States like California, many others as well, are loading up on potential new issuance, hoping in some cases for salvation and in others for liquidity before the manure really hits the fan. There will be too much supply, too little reward when the market settles after issuance, and so this market is in deep trouble. Principal will be returned unless all hell breaks loose but this is no place to have money.

Just a guess of course.

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