When the results are in...
We will wait today and no doubt long into the night. Still without power, heat, and hot water, 8th day on, we will eat in a restaurant tonight that has a sports bar format knowing the at least some of the televisions will be turned to election results. After dinner we will go to an auditorium at a community center that has heat and will broadcast the election results until 11pm. Long time political junkie here, after that it's the transistor radio that will report to me in our living room, sitting in two jackets and wearing a scarf, sometimes a stocking hat in the 45 degree temperature of the room.
Here are some random speculative comments about what happens if either of the two has a clear victory by tomorrow morning:
Romney wins? --- This would be a mild upset, but Romney supporters are generally more committed and enthusiastic than Obama supporters, even if not necessarily more plentiful. Voting totals are essential. Romney's speech declaring victory, which he will definitely make as long as the outcome is at all unclear, will be a version of his stump speech, promising a new day for America and a sudden increase in jobs over his first year in office. He will enthusiastically smile and constantly do his practiced pointing at the audience as if he is picking out people that he knows.
The new day that he will promise could in fact happen, not because of his policies but due to the fact that business could believe that the regulatory morass and uncertainty that they have faced under Obama will soon be alleviated. Whether that is just a short effect that addresses none of our structural economic problems(as is likely the case) or not, the stock market and other financial markets will react positively, reinforcing Romney. In a toss-up disputed election like in 2000, that kind of reaction could give Romney a psychological edge in the disputes and in the courts.
Obama wins? --- Who knows whether Obama can get off of his standard speech of hope from 2008 and his stump speech of 2012 that really addresses only the desires of his constituency. From this perspective, there is the sincere hope that he can be free to say something new, that he drops the sing songy intonations of a preacher that sound pompous to many, and that he says something concrete rather than repeat his wonderfully vague platitudes.
We know, that no matter what his margin of victory would be, unless it is substantial the Republican legal assault on the vote totals will be significant. We know as well that financial market reaction could well be negative(or maybe just flat as relief from this awful unsettling campaign sets in) unless his acceptance speech is hugely different from his standard speech. More promises of the beneficence and all knowing insight of government will not work for the broad polarized market. That's especially true in even in the Democratic leaning New York region now, as government led coping with this storm has been a disaster in itself.
The Senate balance of power outcome is the other tremendously important part of tonight's results. While the Executive branch of federal government has many important powers(foreign policy, regulatory appointees, and undeclared wars as some examples) a totally Republican Congress would make Obama at least a two year lame duck in many areas. Importantly for the Democrats, the Republicans managed to run some "foot in the mouth" big-time candidates and they may stifle their hopes for a result in their favor.
Have a good night everyone. Any updates to this depend on access to a computer at our local library or a seat available at Starbucks for Wi-Fi.
Here are some random speculative comments about what happens if either of the two has a clear victory by tomorrow morning:
Romney wins? --- This would be a mild upset, but Romney supporters are generally more committed and enthusiastic than Obama supporters, even if not necessarily more plentiful. Voting totals are essential. Romney's speech declaring victory, which he will definitely make as long as the outcome is at all unclear, will be a version of his stump speech, promising a new day for America and a sudden increase in jobs over his first year in office. He will enthusiastically smile and constantly do his practiced pointing at the audience as if he is picking out people that he knows.
The new day that he will promise could in fact happen, not because of his policies but due to the fact that business could believe that the regulatory morass and uncertainty that they have faced under Obama will soon be alleviated. Whether that is just a short effect that addresses none of our structural economic problems(as is likely the case) or not, the stock market and other financial markets will react positively, reinforcing Romney. In a toss-up disputed election like in 2000, that kind of reaction could give Romney a psychological edge in the disputes and in the courts.
Obama wins? --- Who knows whether Obama can get off of his standard speech of hope from 2008 and his stump speech of 2012 that really addresses only the desires of his constituency. From this perspective, there is the sincere hope that he can be free to say something new, that he drops the sing songy intonations of a preacher that sound pompous to many, and that he says something concrete rather than repeat his wonderfully vague platitudes.
We know, that no matter what his margin of victory would be, unless it is substantial the Republican legal assault on the vote totals will be significant. We know as well that financial market reaction could well be negative(or maybe just flat as relief from this awful unsettling campaign sets in) unless his acceptance speech is hugely different from his standard speech. More promises of the beneficence and all knowing insight of government will not work for the broad polarized market. That's especially true in even in the Democratic leaning New York region now, as government led coping with this storm has been a disaster in itself.
The Senate balance of power outcome is the other tremendously important part of tonight's results. While the Executive branch of federal government has many important powers(foreign policy, regulatory appointees, and undeclared wars as some examples) a totally Republican Congress would make Obama at least a two year lame duck in many areas. Importantly for the Democrats, the Republicans managed to run some "foot in the mouth" big-time candidates and they may stifle their hopes for a result in their favor.
Have a good night everyone. Any updates to this depend on access to a computer at our local library or a seat available at Starbucks for Wi-Fi.
posted by John Borden at 12:16 PM
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