Monday, September 02, 2013

Timing is important --- 2008 decisions compared to today's on Syria

President Obama's decision to wait until Congress approves any possible action on Syria is "prudent", and that includes several interpretations of that word.  No matter what happens the time to act has been missed.  Obama waited for the U.N. inspectors to determine if there had been a chemical attack, and is still waiting.  Their mission is not to determine who or where it emanated from, just that there was a chemical attack.  How absurd is this.  Was it an unusual occurrence of acid rain?, a major case of food poisoning?, an act of God?  It was obvious to all that it was a chemical weapons attack from the beginning and it was obvious to all from the beginning that the almost certain source was the Assad government who had the means to attack and wanted to test the U.S. mettle to deal with it after multiple smaller uses in recent months in other parts of their country.

The time to take any assertive punitive action was immediately.  Immediately has now been lost, and any action now must have a strategic plan that does not exist and a rationale that no longer has any sense of outrage, anger, or a sense of upholding common sense, not only opposition to the use of chemical weapons in any way, but unbelievably against civilian populations .  That sense of outrage would have been the reason for a quick reaction. 

It is a reminder here of the fall of 2008 when Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson, supported fully by President Bush, called on the Congress for an immediate injection of liquidity into the financial system by the federal government in order to halt a chaotic decline in financial markets and business activity.  This was the famous three page document that was ridiculed widely by Congress, led by limited, biased and self righteous thinkers like Senator Carl Levin.  It was not even taken to the floor of Congress.  How could any financial action of that magnitude be taken without the opportunity to attach multiple earmarks by Congressional leaders.

This huge mistake underscored the lack of almost any financial markets understanding by most members of Congress.  Financial markets move in their own time frame.  Immediate action as Paulson wanted could have removed many of the toxic assets from the market before many more credit default swaps were written by poorly managed firms like AIG, having lost their real leader to the evil Spitzer's self serving venom(Hank Greenberg was eventually exonerated of all of Spitzer's charges but the company he was forced to leave was in a shambles without his leadership).  During the time it took to finally pass a bill that added liquidity to the system, financial markets virtually collapsed and business activity, small and large business, came to a halt.  I had written here that even our town's local diner, the meeting place for all, was almost empty for two months with no one parting with the money to get their $6 tuna on rye and $2 cup of pea soup at lunch.

Paulson's urgency was what was absolutely needed at the time and could have had the chance to halt the market meltdown in its tracks.   By the time Congress passed some earmark loaded bill to do something, it was far too late.  The damage had been done.

This analogy to today and Syria could be viewed as imperfect or incorrect.  That is not the perception here.  Timing is important.  Any action to hold Syria accountable is now improbable, and if eventually taken will have no impact on the situation overall.  It makes the U.S. look impotent already and Obama look incredibly weak.  His "red line" statement was just big talk, with no big walk behind it.

At this point any action may just be counter productive, or just a nod of our willingness to confront Assad in a minor way to our allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Jordan while displaying the U.S. weapons capability for a day or two.   


















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