Eyes on Putin and the Ukraine
There are no doubt a gazillion comments in the blogosphere this weekend speculating on geopolitical crisis outcomes, with the lynchpin of it all at the moment being the Russia/Ukraine/West stand-off. Why not add to it all from here, but as a great starting point there is Ross Douthat's op-ed piece in the NYT today, "Russia Without Illusions". It is a well written description of the "two dangerous illusions" that the West, most specifically the U.S., has generally wanted to believe since the end of the Cold War and has based its foreign policy on when dealing with Putin and Russia.
Douthat concludes that "what's needed, after these illusions, is a more realistic assessment of both Russian intentions(which are plainly more malign that the Obama administration wanted to believe) and Western leverage(which is more limited than Obama's hawkish critics would like to think)." He goes on to say at the close of his commentary that, "What we need is realism, to use the powers that we have, without pretending to powers that we lack."
All of that is well and good and sane, but what do we do now given the imminent outcomes that loom ahead. Douthat does not speculate about that. Here we can do that without fear of ridicule, so here goes.
Putin will find a pretext for an incursion into broader eastern Ukraine in the near term. Any defense by Ukraine will be a disaster. Putin will be baiting the inexperienced, unsteady, unelected, and relatively unknown government in Kiev that can only be cautiously supported by a West that does not want to get drawn into a broad conflict by such neophytes. Putin could also use proxies and spies to stir up pro-Russian activity in eastern parts of countries such as Moldova, Estonia, and Belarus. The result of these possible scenarios is unknown, but there is little reason to think that Putin is going to be a shrinking violet in the face of modest sanctions and a more troubled economy. He does not care about the Russian people's prosperity. He will exploit nationalistic fervor to overcome any hardships of the people.
Oh why in God's name did we give up our space capacity to rely on Russia. Why did we allow Russia leverage in Syria when they are the prime supporter of Assad. Why do we talk big and carry a small stick, TR thought the opposite should be the approach.
There are many possible outcomes and dangers ahead. If only Putin would stop his J. Edgar Hoover act and just come out of the closet. We would accept him. We would still confront him.
Douthat concludes that "what's needed, after these illusions, is a more realistic assessment of both Russian intentions(which are plainly more malign that the Obama administration wanted to believe) and Western leverage(which is more limited than Obama's hawkish critics would like to think)." He goes on to say at the close of his commentary that, "What we need is realism, to use the powers that we have, without pretending to powers that we lack."
All of that is well and good and sane, but what do we do now given the imminent outcomes that loom ahead. Douthat does not speculate about that. Here we can do that without fear of ridicule, so here goes.
Putin will find a pretext for an incursion into broader eastern Ukraine in the near term. Any defense by Ukraine will be a disaster. Putin will be baiting the inexperienced, unsteady, unelected, and relatively unknown government in Kiev that can only be cautiously supported by a West that does not want to get drawn into a broad conflict by such neophytes. Putin could also use proxies and spies to stir up pro-Russian activity in eastern parts of countries such as Moldova, Estonia, and Belarus. The result of these possible scenarios is unknown, but there is little reason to think that Putin is going to be a shrinking violet in the face of modest sanctions and a more troubled economy. He does not care about the Russian people's prosperity. He will exploit nationalistic fervor to overcome any hardships of the people.
Oh why in God's name did we give up our space capacity to rely on Russia. Why did we allow Russia leverage in Syria when they are the prime supporter of Assad. Why do we talk big and carry a small stick, TR thought the opposite should be the approach.
There are many possible outcomes and dangers ahead. If only Putin would stop his J. Edgar Hoover act and just come out of the closet. We would accept him. We would still confront him.
posted by John Borden at 5:56 PM
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