Thursday, November 07, 2019

Interesting combination?


Recently there has been media commentary about Berkshire Hathaway, and Warren Buffett's $128 billion hoard of cash equivalent reserves. There is speculation about what next?  Will he make a major investment in a public company, buy a company outright, or return a massive amount of capital to shareholders. In this market there are few of the obvious deep value investments that he always aspires to do.  Few companies are troubled enough to need a bailout, and the stock market keeps melting up.  My question?  Would he buy Fidelity Investments, a private company that was founded by and has always been controlled by the Johnson family in Boston.  As is well known, it the largest discount broker by far, and has a significant institutional business as well.  They are every investment bank underwriter's most desired partner.  Goldman Sachs knows Buffett and Fidelity well, based on past interactions, and would be a probable underwriter that would accommodate Buffett's need with reasonable fees.

Charles Schwab is a public company and has a current market value of $56 billion.  In recent months that stock, SCHW, was under pressure so on October 9th a position was started here, with a few additions after.  At this point, 30 days later, it is up 17%.  Something is going on in that sector it seems.  In a certain sense as it continues to grow, Fidelity will almost necessarily need to become a public company to satisfy family interests and provide more liquidity for their former and current employees.  Are the winds of change pushing Schwab higher?

This would be a complex transaction.  How it could unfold is just a guessing game, but it could be worked out.  IPO, investment combination?  Just a thought here.  A guess would suggest that the market value of Fidelity could be twice that of Schwab.




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