The accepted rampant ignorance of many media financial pundits
When showering, shaving, dressing, cooking, cleaning dishes, so many things, I often am listening to Bloomberg radio or half watching/half listening to CNBC. The financial markets interest me, they are a type of risk taking that I enjoy and generally, buy not always, do ok at, and at this point the interest may as well be relegated to the status of a hobby that at times is profitible.
Almost 10 years after leaving a job in the investment business, I am still familiar with quite a few of the characters involved and personally knew a bunch that are still hanging in there, some my age, some older, some quite a bit younger. So it's interesting. There are some astute people out there for sure, but most don't spend their market day seeking voice time on radio or face time on television. There are exceptions to that practice like the Pimco guys, who must see their constant availability as a way to promote their firm and, cynically speaking, "talk their book" to their advantage.
What is incredibly frustrating is how many of the newer pundits, that's the great majority of them with whom I have no insight, are completely unaware of how the market works and their words are taken as wisdom by interviewers, many of whom do not know better.
There are examples every day, snippets heard that make little sense but are treated respectfully. So here's just one from today. A guest investor or journalist or professional pundit on a panel was making the comment that with the Dow and S&P hitting new records, investors would be reluctant to raise their equity positions and new investors would be inclined to stay away. The Bloomberg moderator agreed with serious faced concern. The other panelist, a Brit, then noted that none of these record highs were inflation adjusted, and they were in real dollars still a good distance away from being record highs, which was exactly right. The response of the pundit was that "investors don't really pay attention to that and only look at the reported numbers", a comment that the moderator seemed to agree with.
How remarkably stupid. Any investor who has any influence on the market knows that comparisons need to be inflation adjusted to have any credibility. Retail investors that listen to or watch these programs may be impressed by the "new highs" but except in a manic market like the late 1990's retail investors have no impact whatsoever on stock price. Many clerical type pension fund managers have no idea either and no influence on the market. Not on every given day, but over a reasonably short period of time the market is priced by smart investors who understand the basics.
Much of what is heard in the media - print, radio, television, internet - is just plain uninformed blather by people who take themselves very seriously.
Almost 10 years after leaving a job in the investment business, I am still familiar with quite a few of the characters involved and personally knew a bunch that are still hanging in there, some my age, some older, some quite a bit younger. So it's interesting. There are some astute people out there for sure, but most don't spend their market day seeking voice time on radio or face time on television. There are exceptions to that practice like the Pimco guys, who must see their constant availability as a way to promote their firm and, cynically speaking, "talk their book" to their advantage.
What is incredibly frustrating is how many of the newer pundits, that's the great majority of them with whom I have no insight, are completely unaware of how the market works and their words are taken as wisdom by interviewers, many of whom do not know better.
There are examples every day, snippets heard that make little sense but are treated respectfully. So here's just one from today. A guest investor or journalist or professional pundit on a panel was making the comment that with the Dow and S&P hitting new records, investors would be reluctant to raise their equity positions and new investors would be inclined to stay away. The Bloomberg moderator agreed with serious faced concern. The other panelist, a Brit, then noted that none of these record highs were inflation adjusted, and they were in real dollars still a good distance away from being record highs, which was exactly right. The response of the pundit was that "investors don't really pay attention to that and only look at the reported numbers", a comment that the moderator seemed to agree with.
How remarkably stupid. Any investor who has any influence on the market knows that comparisons need to be inflation adjusted to have any credibility. Retail investors that listen to or watch these programs may be impressed by the "new highs" but except in a manic market like the late 1990's retail investors have no impact whatsoever on stock price. Many clerical type pension fund managers have no idea either and no influence on the market. Not on every given day, but over a reasonably short period of time the market is priced by smart investors who understand the basics.
Much of what is heard in the media - print, radio, television, internet - is just plain uninformed blather by people who take themselves very seriously.
1 Comments:
We are still with this non-inflation adjusted new high phenomenon on all media. Incredible?
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