Monday, May 06, 2013

Middle East chaos continues

The title is truth that need not be said.  Egypt is a mess with its new despotic ruler that has further ruined the economy, destroyed tourism, and continued to defy any attempt to improve women's rights.  The Muslim Brotherhood seems to be just a slightly tamed down version of Islamist extremism, with the exception of rights for the really wealthy.

Iraq is pumping oil again with the help of non-U.S. firms, so has a source of funds.  Chaos still reigns but it is more personal than political perhaps,  Sunni and Shiite against each other, everyone against the Kurds, just random chaos that is meant to eventually empower extremists.  The ridding of that country of Saddam Hussein and his heinous sons by the U.S. was a meaningful and in my view a positive event, but the overstay of our welcome was definitely not.  Afghanistan is a country that will never be controlled by anyone, can only be bordered off and let the carnage go on.  So sad of a comment for the women there and I hope that I am wrong.  It is unclear if we or anyone is making long term progress there.  A friend of mine on one of those traveling adventures in the vogue after college, certainly enjoyed mine, ended up in Afghanistan.  When he came back he had the worst haircut ever, on the street there, and was convinced that there was no concept of law in the country.  That still seems to be true, as we deliver bags of cash to Karzai for no real reason except for his family's Swiss bank accounts and those of some Taliban leaders.

Syria as we knew it is history.  It is destroying itself and its people on all sides.  This could have been avoided by the incredibly selfish Assad and his spoiled wife more than a year ago with some concessions and some fair elections.  Now it is way beyond repair.  Iran is complicit but I believe has mixed feelings, Lebannon is frightened, Hezbollah is happy, Turkey is conflicted but constructive, and Israel is not going to sit and stay silent, as is obvious.  The U.S. will use gunboats and drones if its involvement is necessary. 

Libya is still just a band of competing militias, and even Tunisia is in some tumult.  Kuwait has become an openly visible dictatorship.  Where is there good news.  Dubai, I guess, with hotel temples and Las Vegas style nightlife that is hidden behind Muslim walls.

Whether U.S. involvement in all of this was constructive or not will eventually be decided by historians or by an all out civil war across the region, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan.  Big wars do happen as anyone with a perspective on history knows, and rationality goes by the wayside. 

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