Ukraine in uncharted territory
In Ukraine a tyrant has been toppled but the country is without a government, without money, and on an essentially open border with an unpredictable and empire conscious Russia. What happens next is not clear, but certainly the situation can move quickly.
From this perspective, there are many more troubled areas of the world, say Syria, Afghanistan, North Korea, Iraq, Egypt, the Congo, Nigeria, and others, but there is some degree of predictability as to what may happen near term or even medium term in these places, much of it predictably not so good to terrible.
With Ukraine, the pull of the eastern and western parts of this politically divided country and the completely different agendas of its patrons, Western Europe, Poland, and the U.S. vs. RUSSIA, does not have a clear outcome.
Putin was obviously the sponsor of Yanukovych, even given an understanding of his looting the Ukrainian treasury to build his extravagant residence, golf course, zoo etc. After all, Putin lives in a 100,000 square foot palace outside of Moscow and has a huge dacha in of all places, guess, Sochi, as well as St. Petersberg. Putin has had his stooge Medvedev already dismissing a new Ukraine government before it has even been formed and saying that the elected Parliament is illegitimate. If a hair on the head of any Russian speaking and aligned individual of consequence in eastern Ukraine is touched, Putin could have an excuse to unleash a sizable force over the border in a day.
President Obama has said that "there will be consequences" to any adverse moves affecting Ukraine's sovereignty, but what consequences. Would there be economic sanctions for a country that already is almost bankrupt. That would be counterproductive. Would Germany, Poland, or the U.S. intervene militarily? That is highly unlikely, impossible really. Why does Obama say these things about "consequences" and "red lines" when he will just look for a way out later to save face, his face.
The IMF, the European Union, and the U.S. are no doubt working on an economic package to bailout Ukraine, but who will they hand it to. Putin is no doubt calculating a plan of his own, and determining who Russia would hand it to.
Uncharted territory ahead.
From this perspective, there are many more troubled areas of the world, say Syria, Afghanistan, North Korea, Iraq, Egypt, the Congo, Nigeria, and others, but there is some degree of predictability as to what may happen near term or even medium term in these places, much of it predictably not so good to terrible.
With Ukraine, the pull of the eastern and western parts of this politically divided country and the completely different agendas of its patrons, Western Europe, Poland, and the U.S. vs. RUSSIA, does not have a clear outcome.
Putin was obviously the sponsor of Yanukovych, even given an understanding of his looting the Ukrainian treasury to build his extravagant residence, golf course, zoo etc. After all, Putin lives in a 100,000 square foot palace outside of Moscow and has a huge dacha in of all places, guess, Sochi, as well as St. Petersberg. Putin has had his stooge Medvedev already dismissing a new Ukraine government before it has even been formed and saying that the elected Parliament is illegitimate. If a hair on the head of any Russian speaking and aligned individual of consequence in eastern Ukraine is touched, Putin could have an excuse to unleash a sizable force over the border in a day.
President Obama has said that "there will be consequences" to any adverse moves affecting Ukraine's sovereignty, but what consequences. Would there be economic sanctions for a country that already is almost bankrupt. That would be counterproductive. Would Germany, Poland, or the U.S. intervene militarily? That is highly unlikely, impossible really. Why does Obama say these things about "consequences" and "red lines" when he will just look for a way out later to save face, his face.
The IMF, the European Union, and the U.S. are no doubt working on an economic package to bailout Ukraine, but who will they hand it to. Putin is no doubt calculating a plan of his own, and determining who Russia would hand it to.
Uncharted territory ahead.
posted by John Borden at 3:27 PM
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