Are Kerry and Obama thinking through all of their threats
One could easily wonder whether John Kerry is fully thinking through all of the "consequences" for Russia that he details in what can seem like a knee jerk reaction as he travels the world. The same could be said for President Obama who manages from afar with limited detail to his comments. Of course, Russia's invasion of the Ukraine is a huge challenge for our foreign policy and one that needs to be promptly and thoughtfully addressed, but it is unclear whether either Obama or Kerry have the credibility to be influential.
With Syria and his red line, Obama eventually, for all practical purposes, ceded authority over the chemical weapons situation to Russia, the Syrian government's largest supplier of conventional weapons. The pressure on Obama was relieved but it is unclear whether the solution has been even close to becoming a reality. His comments on Ukraine were doomed from the start to anyone with a pulse. Now Russia not only has moved troops into Crimea but has given a 5am Tuesday deadline to Ukrainian troops there to surrender or be subject to force.
Of course Russia's move into Ukraine is a blatant violation of a sovereign country's border. That fact is completely clear but there are some complications. Russia essentially got away with doing the same thing with two breakaway provinces of Georgia in 2008. Russia has a long term agreement with Ukraine to maintain a major Black Sea military port in Crimea. They are saying that the intervention is to protect their interests and those of the Russian aligned people who live there.
If confined to Crimea this situation can likely be worked out over time, however difficult and unseemly that may be. If this is just the beginning of an annexation of major parts of the industrial eastern, primarily Russian-speaking, Ukraine that is a big issue, much more problematic than Crimea. If Russia can then lure Ukraine into defending their country, Ukraine would likely be crushed in short order.
The pressure of the West's threatened economic isolation could have a large impact on the Russian people and the Russian economy. The problem is that it is unclear that Putin gives a darn about the Russian people. He certainly doesn't really care what other countries think of him. He's KGB. He can cut off 25% of Europe natural gas supply in a heartbeat. He can use his U.N. security council position to veto any proposals on Iran or Syria or any country where his alignment with the West could be important. He resents what he views as the U.S. pushing NATO to his borders on all fronts. He is not without some negotiating points.
From this perspective, the main thing that Obama and Kerry need to do is not make threats that they cannot follow-up on and not to be naive about who they are dealing with. The U.S. also needs to drop its swagger and stop suggesting that it is leading the response to Putin(done without equivocation by a deputy secretary of state in a interview while Kerry was traveling). There is no purpose in having this attitude. Germany is as important in this as the U.S. if not more so, and Poland has played a constructive role. Switzerland with its banks could be influential and England with its preferred London lifestyle for many oligarchs, Russian and Ukrainian, is not without clout. Tone it down is the advice for the State Department and Obama.
With Syria and his red line, Obama eventually, for all practical purposes, ceded authority over the chemical weapons situation to Russia, the Syrian government's largest supplier of conventional weapons. The pressure on Obama was relieved but it is unclear whether the solution has been even close to becoming a reality. His comments on Ukraine were doomed from the start to anyone with a pulse. Now Russia not only has moved troops into Crimea but has given a 5am Tuesday deadline to Ukrainian troops there to surrender or be subject to force.
Of course Russia's move into Ukraine is a blatant violation of a sovereign country's border. That fact is completely clear but there are some complications. Russia essentially got away with doing the same thing with two breakaway provinces of Georgia in 2008. Russia has a long term agreement with Ukraine to maintain a major Black Sea military port in Crimea. They are saying that the intervention is to protect their interests and those of the Russian aligned people who live there.
If confined to Crimea this situation can likely be worked out over time, however difficult and unseemly that may be. If this is just the beginning of an annexation of major parts of the industrial eastern, primarily Russian-speaking, Ukraine that is a big issue, much more problematic than Crimea. If Russia can then lure Ukraine into defending their country, Ukraine would likely be crushed in short order.
The pressure of the West's threatened economic isolation could have a large impact on the Russian people and the Russian economy. The problem is that it is unclear that Putin gives a darn about the Russian people. He certainly doesn't really care what other countries think of him. He's KGB. He can cut off 25% of Europe natural gas supply in a heartbeat. He can use his U.N. security council position to veto any proposals on Iran or Syria or any country where his alignment with the West could be important. He resents what he views as the U.S. pushing NATO to his borders on all fronts. He is not without some negotiating points.
From this perspective, the main thing that Obama and Kerry need to do is not make threats that they cannot follow-up on and not to be naive about who they are dealing with. The U.S. also needs to drop its swagger and stop suggesting that it is leading the response to Putin(done without equivocation by a deputy secretary of state in a interview while Kerry was traveling). There is no purpose in having this attitude. Germany is as important in this as the U.S. if not more so, and Poland has played a constructive role. Switzerland with its banks could be influential and England with its preferred London lifestyle for many oligarchs, Russian and Ukrainian, is not without clout. Tone it down is the advice for the State Department and Obama.
posted by John Borden at 11:23 AM
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