Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Tonight's primary votes have much to tell us

The polls will close in a few states within 10 minutes.  The staggered closing over the new few hours will keep election watchers occupied with a few main questions.  The first and foremost is whether Donald Trump is actually on his way to a heist of the Republican Party.

Establishment Republicans have worked hard over they years to make their party this vulnerable. They have moved further and further to the right, and on many issues polls suggest that they are well to the right of the majority of the American people, and even to the right of a meaningful minority of members of their own party.  They had become insular and boring.  What better opportunity for a wild man like Trump to take charge of right of center believers who wanted what they would perceive as a forceful leader.

We will see if the realization by Republicans, after South Carolina and Nevada, that Trump can really be their nominee leads to even greater support for him as he gets momentum, or whether many have a "wait a minute" moment and pull back on their support.   As I said recently in an e-mail to friends, "Donald Trump has more baggage than the Olsen twins checking into a hotel."  Of course, I know nothing about the Olsen twins, but I do know that there is so much to uncover about Donald Trump that it probably overwhelmed the other candidates as they would think, "what do I choose among all of this to highlight?"  Until just a few weeks ago they hoped that the problem would just go away.  It has not.

For the Democrats, it is possible that this is a last stand for Bernie Sanders.  If he shows some resilience that would be big news.  Now to the television for a look at what's going on.

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