Friday, May 10, 2013

So confusing, the stock market outlook

We are certainly now at a point where stocks are doing well, and just by any historical analysis will have at least a minor, at best,correction soon, deserved or not.  We have certainly participated in most of the upside, but that means a reason for concern.  I have eliminated some portions of my happy ,small cap stocks, all with gains but all that I see as vulnerable.  We do maintain and have even added to our small cap index funds, U.S. and the small allocations to foreign small caps.

The risk/reward on bonds is absurd in most maturities, and based on Bernanke's comments this morning you could wonder whether, on an inflation adjusted basis, money market funds or even bank held funds are safe at all.  On any inflation adjusted basis one loses money every day in a money market fund.   So we know that the Fed driven money market funds are essentially useless except as a diminishing but relatively safe store of value, and, this talk today of bank deposits was disconcerting.  My experience with various unanticipated market moves scares me.  Money is being forced into the stock market, much to our advantage thus far, but is there a breaking point?

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