Thursday, November 10, 2016

The Equity market yesterday---measure of capitalism but not of civility

Anyone who thinks that free capital markets are the independent monitor of all that is right in the world can now be disabused of that notion.  Yesterday's U.S. Dow equity market index had a swing of over 1000 points from the lows of very late night futures trading to the late morning when things settled down.  The major equity indexes, Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P, all finished up by more than 1%. The market, while crazed, was measuring financial opportunity and that had nothing to do with the norms of civility and intelligence that were destroyed in this election.

Watching stocks followed here, there were significant gains in the equities of large banking stocks, pharma stocks, military related issues, and steel makers and fabricators.  During the primary season Clinton was pushed by Sanders and Warren into more rigid positions about financial "reform", and with that cloud lifted bank stocks jumped.  Drug stocks and to a lesser extent other health related stocks climbed as more regulation will probably be taken off the table.  With the former Nucor CEO as a primary advisor to Trump on trade, steel related stocks reacted to the potential for actual teeth in rules governing imports from China or Chinese surrogates like Vietnam. Stocks like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, and General Dynamics had 5% gains or more as military expenditures are seen as likely to rise significantly under Trump.

Since Donald J. Trump believes that climate change is a myth, energy related stocks, including coal, must be doing well but they are not followed closely here.  Rail related stocks followed here rose sharply, no doubt due to relief eventually expected for coal and energy related shipments.

The market opens in few minutes for today's session and more possibility of interpretation.

As an aside, and to put this in the past, from this perspective the two pivotal contributors to the Clinton defeat were the early on comment by her describing Trump voters as being "deplorables" that was heard by many and used to her detriment repeatedly, and the Comey pre-election meddling, Comey being a Bush Republican who wrote his college thesis at William and Mary on Jerry Falwell and was somehow appointed by Obama to ten year tenure at the FBI.

Friday morning --- Adding to that after so many post-mortems have been read, it must be said that listening to campaign manager Robby Mook rather that her husband and others about where to campaign and who to focus on was a huge mistake.  He was never impressive as a surrogate in media interviews, at times embarrassingly poor, and now I know why.  It was because he was not a real player who was given real responsibility.  It was Hillary's call.


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